It’s impossible to doubt that our species is amidst a health crisis. As it turns out, so are many other species as we propel starship Earth ever deeper into what is undoubtedly our planet’s sixth mass extinction.
The question more and more people are asking themselves is: how much of our 2020 health crisis, that looks set to continue into 2021, is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus – and how much is caused by the way we – and especially our governments – have reacted to the virus? This short video makes the case that it’s our reaction to the virus that’s already caused, and is set to cause in the future, by far the greatest and longest-lasting negative impacts.
Let’s now break down how we get to this view.
Covid-related versus non-covid deaths
There are two main ways a disease can seriously impact our health, the function of society and economies, and therefore the all-important socioeconomic determinants of health. One is by a lot of people getting very sick, not being able to work, and dying prematurely. The other is by overburdening our health care services.
On both counts – the latest data shows us that, in contrast to what the mainstream media and politicians would have us believe, Covid-19 is far from the most dangerous threat to health.
Putting some perspective on it, 6.8 million children under the age of 5 have already died this year.
About the same number of people – around 1.5 million - who’ve died with, not of, covid - have died of HIV/AIDS, often at much younger ages. Only slightly fewer have died in road traffic accidents. Three times this number of deaths have been caused by smoking. Five times more have been caused by cancer.
In terms of deaths – there is now broad agreement that owing to different ways in which deaths have been recorded in relation to covid-19, the most reliable way of looking at covid’s contribution is via excess mortality – typically the number of additional deaths that have occurred in a given week or month as compared against the same time over the previous 5 years. Because we’re now well and truly over the first wave, we shouldn’t be making decisions based on what happened historically during the first wave. The virus has mutated over 200 times, more and more people have already been exposed to it so some degree of immunity has already been achieved. We must look instead at the present, as well as at trends going forwards.
While it’s hard to ignore the very raised excess mortality in some but certainly not all countries during the first wave, the pattern of excess mortality even in most of the countries hit hardest during the first wave is now pretty typical for the time of year. Belgium and Italy are outliers currently with higher than average excess mortality for the time of year. It’s therefore no exaggeration to say, at its worst during the first wave, covid posed a threat that was in line with a bad flu season. Right now, for the vast majority of the world, it looks a lot more like a typical flu season.
Even in the USA, that has been one of the hardest hit countries, excess mortality never rose more than 50% at the peak of the first wave in the north, and didn’t exceed 30% in the south. Excess mortality in the UK doubled largely because not enough was done to protect the vulnerable in care homes. Sweden, which was put in the naughty corner for its light and voluntary lockdown approach, now seems to be enjoying the double benefit of an economy that’s barely missed a beat and a population that’s enjoying negative excess mortality – in other words fewer people have been dying than was the case in the pre-covid era.
Source: Our World in Data
Are hospitals overrun?
The long and short of this is that hospitals are overrun in a few places in the northern hemisphere – and these get a lot of publicity. But they’re not in most places. What the mainstream media doesn’t like to tell us is this is the typical pattern in other years at this time of year. The greater pressures of respiratory diseases and cold weather have for many years threatened over-burdened health care systems during the winter months.
As you can see here looking at data from the UK Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre – ICNARC – the tan line here shows the number of critically ill patients with confirmed Covid-19 is increasing, but is nothing like the numbers in April, and the confirmation of Covid doesn’t mean that SARS-CoV-2 is the cause of the primary health concern for which patients have been admitted to critical care.
Source: Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre
But balanced against that – other non-covid pneumonias – notably caused by flu – are lower. The net burden is therefore pretty much normal for the time of year.
We’re starting to see the publication of more and more reports that are pointing in one direction – that most of the damage to health, society and economies are the result of government policies, not the virus itself. These policies for the first time in history removed people’s ability to manage their risk of infection themselves, in the process causing catastrophic impacts on livelihoods, businesses and economies – the very things most people rely on to stay afloat.
It’s also the very source of damage that Sweden chose to avoid, and its economy has fared better than almost any other in the Western world. What’s more, the acquired immunity of its population seems to be protecting Sweden’s population from a second wave of infection.
The travesty of over-testing
Much of the hysteria about Covid is being driven by focusing attention on cases measured by PCR tests, not cases of disease. There’s an ever growing literature of publications that is making clear that most commercial antigen tests using Reverse Transcriptase RT PCR looking for SARS-CoV-2 relies on a cycle threshold or CT that is in excess of 35. The RT part means the RNA in this or other viruses is converted into a matching sequence of DNA which is then amplified, doubled, 35 or more times. One study by Jared Bullard and colleagues from the University of Manitoba in Canada published in the Journal of Clinical Infectious Diseases found very little infectivity in patients who tested positive with CT values greater than 24.
Another study published in the same journal, led by Bernard La Scola from the IHU in Marseille, France, found that for CT values of 35 or more, only 3% of cultures were infective.
Yet most commercial tests can run up to 40 to 45 CT and those who receive positive test results are not told the CT value that triggered the positive result.
This is crucial especially in non-symptomatic, presymptomatic or asymptomatic individuals with either no or likely low viral loads. A positive result with a high CT value will be detecting viral fragments or bits of closely related virus like the common cold that have no ability to infect another person.
Adding to that are the problems of very high rates of false positives when prevalence is low – that’s linked to Bayes’ theorem that we discussed in a previous video. Incredibly – given there’s a Wild West of mass testing going on out there, there’s still no true gold standard by which to compare PCR tests. Bottom line: mass testing of the general population is very unreliable and it’s bordering on the fringe of scientific lunacy to base enforced isolation, travel bans, visits to sports or entertainment events or government mandated lockdowns on a flawed mass testing regime. But that’s what governments are doing anyway.
When times are tough, it’s more important than ever we’re solution-based. Here’s out top 3 solutions.
Protect our rights and freedoms, and the rule of law
Trying to hide away from a virus, the threat of which to the global population has been greatly exaggerated, crashing economies in an effort to escape a single virus, and removing people’s rights and freedoms as a means of trying to control the spread of this one virus, is looking ever more difficult to justify scientifically, socially and economically. Let’s stop the politicians from trying to play scientists and then trying to justify their decisions politically. While the science will in time be so overwhelming and inescapable, right now the surest and quickest way of trying to halt the madness is using the accumulating evidence in courts of law to upend the irrational policies being enforced on hundreds of millions of people around the world. Let’s do this before the next new virus appears. This particular coronavirus, whether deliberately or unintentionally, has been used as the doorway for global governance – at huge cost to citizens around the world.
Secondly, let’s all work on developing, as much as we can, the protective effect of wellbeing, something that’s been known for years. People who suffer more severe consequences of covid-disease generally suffer from underling conditions or are older. That means the allostatic load on their systems is greater, so they have less capacity available for their immune systems to overcome the virus. They may also have insufficient resources for their immune systems to work – and most of these resources come from our diets and simple vitamins like vitamins D, C, A and zinc. In a word, the people who suffer most are those who’re less resilient and for most of us, there’s a lot that we can do to improve our resilience.
Thirdly, let’s share what we know to be factual and true – via whatever medium or platform you find is still working – because there’s never been a time in the so-called once-free-world when so much of the world’s media was attempting to control a given narrative while also trying to root out dissenting voices.
Our freedom of expression and freedom of thought has long been one of the best things about the human race.
Let’s not let this right be stripped from us for the sake of the few that seek to benefit from a widely misunderstood virus.
So a big thank you from us at the ANH team for all your effort in sharing this video that we know would be censored on YouTube. You’ll find plenty more on the videos section accessible from the home page of our website. Thank you.
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your voice counts
28 November 2020 at 10:57 am
Thank you ANH for presenting the facts and being a voice of reason in the midst of the panic and fear that's being generated.
29 November 2020 at 8:18 am
Thanks again ANH for this information - my thoughts exactly! I see this morning that a clandestine army unit, generally occupied in tracking terrorist organisations, is being used to find and shut down dissenting news. More and more like 1984!
29 November 2020 at 10:32 am
Thank you so much for your continuing voice of reason, please keep up your excellent work, but unfortunately most people do not listen.
I forward your emails to quite a few people who simply don’t read them, or if they do they argue the points that you make against all they see and hear in the mainstream media. They simply don’t accept that there are differing points of view, all they want is a quick fix to release them form this prison.
We will not be able to stand up against this galloping dystopian nightmare because a ‘state of emergency’ which was introduced in March and the following ‘Corona Virus Act’ has given this and global governments the power to bring in any law that they want, even overnight, and most of the public agree with them!
It is becoming increasingly difficult for me and other ‘truth seekers’ to voice an opinion because we don’t seem to have freedom of speech anymore and according to George Orwell in 1937, the worst kind of censorship is ‘self censorship’ which we are seeing now for fear of reprisals.
I sincerely hope that court cases may be able to overturn some of these draconian measures, but court cases take such a long time that I doubt whether anything can happen before they roll out this vaccine at break-neck speed, complete with your ‘health passport’ rolled out by the UN which will be your ‘ticket to freedom’.
Alison Ledgerwood none
30 November 2020 at 5:23 pm
Yes this is getting increasingly worrying. I saw a great poster recently - a billboard outside somebody's house somewhere in the USA which said "Make Orwell Fiction Again!"
03 December 2020 at 5:04 pm
Much of this discussion assumes that the PCR tests are reliable. Here is latest evidence to show that it is NOT. Even before delving into this info, it's worth noting the history of submission with Eurosurveillance: Submitted 21 Jan, Accepted 22 Jan, Published 23rd Jan, - plenty of time for peer review ?!
To the critical eye, many elements of the pandemic can be seen to have been pre-ordained, starting with Event201. Or maybe not *starting with* Event201 - but finishing with it ? After all Bill Gates' 'Decade of Vaccines' does time out in 2020. Certainly a lot of groundwork has been covered since the exposed SwineFlu scam of 2009 - to foster receptivity for Corona 2020.
Which makes me wonder too about vaccine preparation. Since the days of the 1st lockdown we are witness to a string of confident predictions for the forthcoming vaccines - how would it look if they were all strung together in one video ? I mean, supposing the 'new' vaccines have not been rushed, and are really not so new after all - could there be some mileage in researching this ?! It does seem advantageous to us objectors - to highlight the 'rushed' production of the vaccine - but could there be even greater leverage from exposing preparations which stretched back through the last decade ?
Certainly Bill Gates and the pharma-brigade, will have overlooked some aspects of secondary effects and safety, and long term effects are impossible to predict - but the men in white lab-coats are also well aware of the backlash if public confidence were undermined by a wave of damage litigaton. Perhaps they have done more homework than they want us to be aware of.
09 December 2020 at 8:57 pm
As you support the view of the paper you referenced "the sixth mass extinction" then you probably support its conclusion "Our results reemphasize the extreme urgency of taking massive global actions to save humanity’s crucial life-support systems.”
I am not convinced by the prognosis, this is the age of the alarmist, he who presents the worst scenario usually wins the room unfortunately ( eg Neil Ferguson).
However the actions of current governments fit the cry for massive global action. The paper talks about the problems of human over population.
Well the virus and government response is dealing with that particular "problem". The controls they are acquiring will enable them to implement other "massive actions" more easily.
So you must be a bit conflicted? You want massive global action and the end result of 2020 will be a reduced economy, less travel etc,etc all good for the environment?
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